Daily Killings in Mexico Fall 37% Under President Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The typical count of per-day killings monthly in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent administrative statistics. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide numbers could fail to signal better national security.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This data was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that have been recorded in these past months is very notable,” the President said, adding that last month the least amount of murders were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly military operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security researchers urged caution that using murder data to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the will to accurately identify and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it might obscure days when there were especially spiking levels of murders.

“Using the daily average renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

But despite these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-driven violence. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to create a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.